Southern California is undergoing its most severe day of wildfire weather conditions. This marks the unprecedented fifth instance this season that the National Weather Service has released a warning for “especially perilous conditions.”
The “especially hazardous conditions” alert will take effect at noon on Monday for the majority of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, continuing until 10 a.m. on Tuesday.
Winds could gust from 50 mph to 70 mph along the coast and in valleys, with sustained winds anticipated to range from 25 mph to 40 mph.
Localized wind gusts of up to 160 mph may be experienced in mountain and foothill regions, although sustained winds are forecasted to vary from 30 mph to 50 mph, stated Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard. It is expected to be within a mile.
The “especially perilous situation” serves as an elevated red flag warning, which already alerts regarding dangerous fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread upon ignition.
“PDS emphasizes an extremely dangerous environment that is highly favorable for rapid fire spread should a fire ignite,” Schoenfeld explained.
Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, mentioned that areas under “especially perilous conditions” are facing “the extremes of extreme conditions, nearly the worst possible circumstances.”
(National Weather Bureau)
Regions in Los Angeles County deemed “particularly at hazard” include the northern San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, Santa Clarita Valley and other northern territories.
This encompasses locations like Altadena and Pasadena, as well as regions from La Crescenta in the northwest to the Porter Ranch vicinity.
The northern San Gabriel Valley, impacted by “particularly hazardous conditions,” refers to the area north of Interstate 210, covering much of Altadena and Pasadena. Sections of the San Fernando Valley located within this warning include Reseda and Burbank, along with areas further north.
A significant portion of Ventura County, comprising Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Ventura, Camarillo, Moorpark, Santa Paula, Port Hueneme, and Fillmore, is similarly “especially at risk.”
A typical red flag alert, which cautions about severe fire weather conditions and quick fire spread upon ignition, is set to begin for a vast area of Southern California at 8 a.m. on Monday and continue until 10 p.m. on Tuesday.
Los Angeles County’s red flag alert further includes the San Gabriel Valley, Palos Verdes Peninsula, and Santa Catalina Island.
Moreover, expansive areas of inland San Diego and Orange counties, along with Riverside and San Bernardino counties, fall under the red flag warning.
A red flag fire weather alert was announced for extensive regions of Southern California from Monday morning through Tuesday evening.
(National Weather Bureau)
In contrast to the destructive storm of Jan. 7-8, where winds originated from the north and northeast, the Santa Ana winds anticipated this week are projected to follow a more conventional pattern, blowing from the east and northeast, according to forecasters.
Consequently, meteorologists believe that the Santa Ana wind corridor, extending from Palmdale toward southwestern destinations such as Santa Clarita and Ventura, will be among the most heavily impacted areas as winds shift towards the coast.
The most intense winds are predicted for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, according to Schoenfeld.
Forecasters have also cautioned about hazardous waters along the coast. “Strong winds will create perilous marine conditions that could overturn or damage both small and large vessels,” the Bureau of Meteorology stated.
What distinguishes this “especially perilous situation” from the four similar alerts issued since November is that “this is one of the driest fire weather events encountered this year.” “It is a possibility,” Schoenfeld mentioned.
On Tuesday, the air is expected to be the driest, with relative
humidity is anticipated to decline to as low as 3% in certain regions.
“While the winds are forecasted to lessen as Tuesday unfolds, we’ll be transitioning toward the lowest relative humidity during that timeframe, so we encourage everyone to stay alert,” Schoenfeld stated.
Rain may arrive next weekend. There is a 50% to 70% likelihood of precipitation commencing Saturday and lasting through the subsequent two days, with a 20% to 30% chance of thunderstorms. This could result in heavy rainfall in some isolated sectors, heightening the risk of flooding in recently scorched areas.
The positive aspect is that there may be a largely beneficial downpour that could assist in extinguishing the fire. Additionally, this is a cold storm that is expected to lower snow levels to 4,000 feet above sea level, bringing snow to some mountainous regions, according to Schoenfeld.
“If we receive sufficient beneficial rainfall, the fire weather will shift dramatically,” Schoenfeld mentioned.
The extreme shortage of precipitation is a significant factor in accounting for Southern California’s wildfire devastation. In this region, the flora remains dry and combustible, greatly increasing the chances of brush igniting from an errant ember.
The most recent occasion downtown Los Angeles received over a tenth of an inch of rain in a single calendar day was May 5th. A total of 259 days has elapsed since that time. It sets a record for downtown’s inability to receive at least a tenth of an inch of rain. The prior record for downtown was from February 25th to November 3, 2008, which marked 253 consecutive days without a tenth of an inch of rain.
Since the commencement of the water year on October 1, merely 0.16 inches of rainfall has been recorded in downtown Los Angeles. This constitutes only 3% of the average precipitation of 5.99 inches expected at this juncture in the water year. The average yearly rainfall for downtown stands at 14.25 inches.
Forecast specialists advised individuals to take immediate measures to diminish the risk of fire ignition and spreading, and to ready themselves for potentially damaging winds.
Residents should secure outdoor belongings such as patio furniture. Adjust travel schedules between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Charge electronic devices, flashlights, and portable battery packs. Fill the emergency generator’s fuel tank. Schoenfeld advised steering clear of trees that appear on the verge of breaking.
Experts caution against placing certain items within 5 feet of your dwelling, including outdoor furniture, umbrellas, trash receptacles, and recycling bins. Clearing away all dead and live weeds is also advisable, as well as removing flammable debris like leaves and conifers from gutters, roofs, decks, porches, and stairways.
“And when the wind blows, avoid proximity to trees and windows. Again, exercise extreme caution with anything that has the potential to ignite a fire,” Schoenfeld reiterated.
The new advisory follows the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office, which oversees Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, issuing an unprecedented red flag alert for “particularly hazardous conditions” in a single season. This marks the fifth issuance of such an order.
Following the first three warnings given by authorities, fires erupted and spread swiftly. In November, a 19,904-acre wildfire in Ventura County obliterated 243 structures. The 4,037-acre Franklin Fire rapidly extended in Malibu, destroying 20 buildings in December. Moreover, this month’s Palisades and Eaton fires have been among California’s most destructive and lethal blazes in recent history.
“The wind conditions (this week) bear resemblance to wildfires in many respects,” Schoenfeld stated. However, he added, “it hasn’t ingrained itself as deeply into the San Gabriel Valley as was observed on January 7,” which rapidly ignited the Eaton Fire, obliterating large areas of unincorporated Altadena.
The weather service in Oxnard only commenced issuing alerts for “particularly perilous conditions” in 2020, with two warnings that year, occurring in October and December. Subsequent alerts were not released until November 2024.
(National Weather Bureau)
The Bureau of Meteorology has opted to use the tagline ‘particularly perilous conditions’ as a means to convey the highest level of red flag alert.
Essentially, the necessity for emergency alerts became glaringly obvious after the catastrophic Thomas Fire in 2017, which ravaged 1,063 structures in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. The 2018 Woolsey Fire decimated 1,643 structures in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Both were among the most devastating fires in Southern California’s recent history.
In the past, reinforcing the message sometimes proved effective. At the end of 2019, the Bay Area’s National Weather Service issued a red flag warning, labeling it “historic” and potentially “extreme.” At the time, firefighters acknowledged the extraordinary allocation of firefighting resources was essential to averting the escalation of fires in Northern and Southern California.
The Palisades Fire, which has charred more than 23,700 acres and claimed at least 10 lives, is 56% contained as of Sunday, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The Eaton Fire has scorched over 14,000 acres and claimed at least 17 lives, but is 81% contained.
The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department reported 27 individuals are still unaccounted for, with 20 from the Eaton fire and seven from the Palisades.
Times staff writer Connor Sheets contributed to this report.