An unprecedented fourth “especially perilous situation” fire weather alert was issued Tuesday morning and is anticipated to remain in effect until Wednesday.
The National Weather Service employs this designation to signify extreme red flag alerts when particularly threatening fire weather scenarios are predicted.
Destructive wildfires have occurred during each of the three alerts issued this season. More than 240 structures have been annihilated in a 19,904-acre wildfire in Ventura County. The 4,037-acre Franklin Fire rapidly advanced in Malibu, wrecking 20 structures in December. Moreover, last week’s Palisades and Eaton fires rank among the most deadly and destructive in California’s contemporary history.
Why are meteorologists so apprehensive?
The label “especially perilous conditions” has historically been applied on rare occasions by National Weather Service offices when meteorologists suspected there could be a potential for a long-lived, powerful, and violent tornado. It has been. The National Weather Service in Oxnard, which services Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties, implemented the system in 2020 with the aim of issuing a clear warning regarding the most extreme fire weather conditions.
“Red flag alerts of any kind are hazardous, but there are varying degrees within that situation, so we required a method to communicate the message of the extremes of the extremes. And PDS was established from that,” said Ryan Kittel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
Timing
The “especially hazardous situation” takes effect at 4 a.m. Tuesday and persists until noon Wednesday in certain regions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Affected Areas
The areas included in the latest alert comprise Camarillo, Fillmore, Northridge, Simi Valley, and Thousand Oaks. Traditional red flag warnings have been issued for Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties, as well as Santa Barbara and San Diego counties, due to a combination of strong winds, dry air, abundant vegetation, and the risk of severe wildfires if ignited. Mountainous regions of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties are also impacted.
Forecast
New fires can propagate swiftly. And with the Palisades and Eaton fires still ongoing, “these winds can undoubtedly stir up some of the hotspots and possibly reignite the flames,” Kittel stated.
Meteorologists have cautioned that winds may be either strong or light during the alert period.
“If there is a lull, do not assume the event has concluded or the forecast is inaccurate,” Kittel advised. “Winds can spike at any moment, so please stay vigilant throughout Wednesday.”
This occurrence will be a more conventional Santa Ana with winds blowing from the east and fire spreading toward the west. This indicates that the winds will be concentrated in Ventura County, in contrast to last week’s winds, which predominantly blew from the north and impacted Los Angeles County heavily.
“It’s certainly going to be concentrated on (specific) areas rather than being as widespread as it was the previous week,” Kittel remarked.
Power Issues
Kittel indicated that localized power outages and fallen trees are anticipated, although not to the extent experienced last week.
Winter Fire
Usually, this time of year in Southern California, “the ground is moist, the grass is lush, and there are no vulnerable plants,” explained Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “Santa Ana winds typically do not blow consistently either.”
According to his assessments, the area is about to experience its fourth Santa Ana wind event since the previous week’s catastrophic firestorm.
Extreme fire weather is also a result of abnormally dry conditions. The last substantial rainfall in downtown Los Angeles occurred on May 5, when 0.13 inches were recorded. Only 0.16 inches of rain have fallen since October 1, which is a fraction compared to the historical average of 5.34 inches expected by this time in the season.
National Weather Service meteorologist Rose Schoenfeld mentioned that the last time there was this minimal rainfall from early May to late December was in 1962 when merely 0.14 inches fell in downtown Los Angeles.
“We’re indeed very close to setting an extreme record for the beginning of a dry winter,” Kittel stated.
Former climatologist Bill Patzelt remarked, “In my view, the last nine months have been among the driest in the historical record since 1900. “I’ve never witnessed a severe event in Santa Ana overpower a typical winter rainy season.”
There have been very few red flags or fires in recent times. During the water year ending on September 30, 2024, 22.15 inches of rain was recorded in downtown Los Angeles. Last year, that number was 31.07 inches. The average annual precipitation in downtown Los Angeles is 14.25 inches.
Conditions are expected to start improving by Wednesday night. Ocean winds will bring increased humidity on Friday and Saturday, although strong winds may still pose a problem in certain areas, including the Antelope Valley and southwestern Santa Barbara County.
However, this feeling of relief may be temporary. There are signs that another wind event could take place in Santa Ana on Sunday and Monday, with a 30% to 40% probability of a repeat red flag alert in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Is there any respite on the horizon?
Kittel noted that next week’s fire weather is unlikely to be as “severe” as the previous week; however, even that positive aspect is somewhat dampened by a complete absence of rain in the short-term forecast.
Currently, there is a slim chance of rain in Los Angeles until January 25th.